The global demand will increase of 30% within 2040, natural gas will support the transition to a cleaner system: Italy can have a significant role thanks to the several manufacturers of equipment and plants.
The World Energy Outlook 2017 (recent publication of the International Energy Agency that contains figures and predictions on the future of energy for the coming years) affirms that by 2040 the world energy demand will increase of 30%. It is as if we add another China and India to the current demand.
This is why the development of technologies for the production of energy from alternative sources, including natural gas and renewables, becomes a fundamental challenge for our planet, more and more affected by climate changes.
Which are the main figures and predictions on the future of energy according to this study?
Figures of the study
The Energy demand will increase because:
- Global economy will increase of 3,4% per year on average;
- in the same way, population will be 9 billion people (today 7,4)
- Urbanization process will lead to the addition of a city with the same dimensions of Shanghai (more than 24 million inhabitants) to the current world urban population every 4 months.
In this context, the study highlights some predictions regarding energy source types.
First, the increase in energy demand will have to be supported by the use of natural gas, which will increase of 45% within 2040, with the rapid growth of renewables and the improvement of energy efficiency.
For many countries, renewables will become the energy source of the new generation, with lower costs.
A rapid increase in the solar photovoltaic will take place, which will represent 40% of the creation of energy from renewable sources. In the European Union, renewables will represent 80% of the new capacity and wind energy will become the first source of electricity after 2030.
Other more polluting energy sources will be still present. In this regard, according to the study, coal consumption will remain the same despite the population growth; on the other side, we will not be ready to say goodbye to petroleum. In fact, the demand of this fossil fuel will increase reaching 105 million barrels per day (today about 96), because of its use for producing petrochemical products and fuel for trucks, aviation and transports. Growth rate will be significant until 2020, but next it will slow down thanks to the transition to new supply sources for transports. Perspectives concerning nuclear energy are less promising compared to the last study of the Agency, but China will insist on developing this source.
All detailed figures are available here.
Italian excellences of Oil&Gas Industry
As seen before, gas will be an important energy source for the energy supply demand. The study highlights that this source is an opportunity to favor the transition to a cleaner energy system.
In this context, 80% of the gas demand will come from emerging economies guided by China that will have to import gas and create the necessary infrastructures for this purpose.
In the field of Oil&Gas production, in Italy there are several companies with specialized competences in producing plants and equipment.
These companies, which collaborate in the different phases of the production chain, according to Nomisma Energia figures, reach a turnover of 19 billion euro (90% is carried out abroad) and their employees are 60.000.
Which companies are we talking about? Mainly manufacturers of products and equipment for the production and transport of gas and petroleum, but also companies that create electric transmission systems.
Moreover, there are companies that design, build and deliver plants directly to customers.
Also EiQ Industrial works in this field, offering certified electric panels for Oil&Gas extraction and distribution plants. The dedicated design team is able to offer customized solutions according to customers’ needs.